Africa’s startup exits are shifting from IPO dreams to local buyers
For Africa’s tech founders, the exit door is still open, but it no longer leads where many once expected. Between 2023 and 2025, the continent recorded more than 100 startup exits, roughly half through mergers and acquisitions, while public listings barely featured, leaving trade sales as the most reliable route to liquidity. The shift is not just about volume but about who is buying: regional banks, telecoms operators, insurers and private equity firms that already operate in these markets and understand the regulatory and political risks involved. As 2026 begins, that buyer mix is changing founder behaviour. With late-stage capital scarce, initial public offering (IPO) windows effectively closed, and early-stage funding recovering only in pockets, many founders are choosing smaller, locally driven exits rather than waiting for global acquirers that may never arrive. A funding winter feeds a deal wave The rise of this exit machine is rooted in the comedown from Africa’s funding boom. Funding into African startups surged to over $3.3 billion in 2022, then fell by about 28% to $2.4 billion in 2023, with the number of funded startups shrinking by more than a third. More recent counts suggest funding recovered to roughly $2–3 billion annually in 2024–2025, but the rush-of-money era has ended. The change is now colliding with a cohort of African startups founded between 2015 and 2019, many of which last raised capital at 2021 valuations. They are larger, older, and need more cash than bridge financing can offer. At the same time, limited partners are pressing venture capitalists for returns, leading to a rise in exits even as new investment slows. The African Private Capital Activity Report recorded 63 exits in 2024, almost 50% higher than the previous year, the second-highest tally on record after 2022. According to this TechCabal Insights report, there was a double‑digit merger and acquisition (M&A) volume in 2023, followed by a sharp acceleration. By mid‑2025, African tech had posted its highest half‑year M&A count ever, with fintech accounting for nearly half. A year‑end review put full‑year 2025 deal numbers up nearly 70% versus the prior year. In short, the funding winter has turned into a consolidation cycle, with a backlog of venture‑backed assets finally finding buyers. The new buyers’ club 1. Regional incumbents, including banks, telcos, insurers, and retailers If there is a single defining buyer of African startups in 2026, it is the African incumbent scrambling to digitise. Banks, telcos, insurers, and retailers are turning to acquisitions to gain an edge by buying licences, agent networks, and product teams instead of building from scratch. South Africa’s Lesaka paid roughly $85.9 million for Adumo, a payments fintech, to bulk up its merchant acceptance network. TymeBank acquired SME financier Retail Capital, turning a startup lender into a distribution engine for its own SME products. In Kenya, Nigerian fintech Moniepoint acquired Sumac Microfinance Bank to secure a local licence and enter into East Africa’s credit market. These regional incumbents buy startups that can move the needle on core metrics such as loan book growth, valuation, and merchant volume within 12 to 24 months. That logic is set to tighten in 2026 as shareholders take a harder look at digital transformation spend. 2. African scale‑ups as serial acquirers The second emergent buyer is less obvious in the data but visible on the ground: African startups buying other African startups. The merger of Kenya’s Wasoko and Egypt’s MaxAB created a cross‑continental player in informal retail, quickly followed by further consolidation, such as the acquisition of Egyptian wholesaler Fatura. In logistics and mobility, acquisitions like BuuPass snapping up QuickBus or Yassir buying smaller delivery players underline the same trend. In January 2026, Flutterwave acquired Mono in an all-share deal to integrate open banking across its vast product and geographic reach. South African fintech Ukheshe acquired payments processor EFTCorp, whereas Kenyan banks are seeing their own payment and agency networks courted by acquisitive regional players. Licence‑buying transactions, such as Moniepoint–Sumac, show how regulatory assets are becoming acquisition targets in their own right. 3. Global players Global names still matter, but their role is narrower. Payment networks, software-as-a-service (SaaS) platforms, and infrastructure players have all picked their spots in Africa. Stripe’s acquisition of Paystack, WorldRemit’s deal for Sendwave, Equinix’s acquisition of MainOne, Deel’s buyout of payroll platform PaySpace, and BioNTech’s takeover of InstaDeep. Global rates have steadied, and core markets are slowing, but Africa still offers double-digit growth in digital payments, connectivity, and consumer services from a low base. In 2026, the bar will be higher, with fewer acquisitions and buyers backing only high-conviction assets that function like infrastructure rather than stand-alone apps. 4. Private equity and secondaries Secondaries accounted for roughly a third of exits in 2023–2024, according to AVCA, up from a five‑year average below 30%. Another AVCA report logged 20 private equity (PE)- to-PE exits in 2024 alone, evidence of a maturing recycling loop even in a tight liquidity environment. A regional PE fund may buy out an early VC and a founder in a profitable financial‑services platform, and a continuation vehicle might roll a cluster of consumer assets into a longer‑dated structure. But for LPs, these are often the difference between mark‑to‑model and cash‑on‑cash. The return of IPOs Africa’s public markets are slowly reopening to tech, but only for a small elite. In late 2025, Johannesburg and Casablanca hosted rare tech listings. South‑Africa‑linked Optasia and Moroccan fintech Cash Plus went public after years of drought. Across the continent, IPOs still account for a low single-digit percentage of startup exits, and there is little to suggest that 2026 will be different. Where they do occur, liquidity is driven by local pension funds, insurers, and asset managers, not by the global tech investor base. The geography of buyers Domestic acquirers already account for just over half of startup exits. Add in regional African buyers, and the intra‑African share climbs well above 50%. Gulf and MENA buyers, often backed by sovereign capital, are becoming more visible in fintech, logistics, and healthcare, leveraging proximity
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5 African startups advancing commerce, creators, crops, and legal cases
Startups On Our Radar spotlights African startups solving African challenges with innovation. In our previous edition, we featured three game-changing startups pioneering HRTech, e-commerce, and mobility. Expect the next dispatch on January 9, 2026. This week, we explore five African startups in the e-commerce, data management, legal, and artificial intelligence sectors and why they should be on your watchlist. Let’s dive into it: Yelen is building an e-commerce ecosystem for Francophone Africa (E-commerce, Côte d’Ivoire) Founded by Ibrahima Sylla in June 2025, Yelen is building an e-commerce ecosystem for small and medium-sized businesses across Francophone Africa that are excluded from online commerce. Although SMEs are important to Francophone African economies, as they make up over 90% of firms, fewer than half currently sell online. The founder observed that while platforms like Shopify exist, they often lack integration with local payment methods like mobile money, which forces merchants to constantly juggle informal logistics and disconnected tools. Yelen allows sellers to create an online storefront without writing code. Vendors can sell both physical and digital products from a single store, accept payments through mobile money or cards, and manage orders and customers on the same dashboard. The platform integrates local payment rails through partners like PowerPay to enable cross-border payments across Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Benin, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Togo, with operators such as MTN, Wave, Moov, and Orange displayed based on the buyer’s location. Yelen’s landing page. Image source: Yelen For logistics, Yelen supports local delivery handled by merchants themselves, while international shipping is facilitated through a DHL partnership. Buyers of physical goods can be required to pay either the full amount upfront or a 10% commitment fee to reduce failed deliveries. Funds are held in a digital wallet and are only accessible to the seller after the customer receives the product. Yelen operates a tiered business model. On its starter plan, the platform takes a 10% commission per transaction. On its business plan, which costs about $200 monthly, Yelen reduces its commission to 3.5% and offers advanced features like custom domains, deeper store customisation, order management, and customer support tools. The company also earns 2–5% commission on logistics for shipments handled through its partners. Additional revenue streams include paid social media advertising services, dubbed Yelen Ads, SMS and email marketing campaigns, and an Instagram integration that allows sellers to import posts directly into their storefronts. Since its launch, Yelen says it has onboarded over 3,000 vendors and processed about $40,000 in transaction volume. Why we’re watching: In 2024, the Ivorian e-commerce market generated a revenue of $534 million, a market where Sylla has 70% of its users. Yelen aims to tap into this market and accommodate both physical and digital commerce. It wants to solve the trust problem by allowing a 10% pre-payment commitment to reduce delivery failure. The startup handles cross-border mobile money payments and integrates local payment rails in Francophone Africa, adding a layer of trust for buyers and sellers operating across informal channels. Kave Africa wants to automate influencer marketing for brands (MarketingTech, Nigeria) Launched in October 2025 by Faith Aminu, Kave Africa is a creator marketing platform built to help brands work more effectively with nano and microcreators. Aminu, who has spent over five years in marketing and worked with product-led tech companies, said the idea for Kave came from repeated firsthand experience. She observed that Nigerian brands often default to celebrity influencer marketing and overlook smaller creators who dominate the creator ecosystem. She also saw that brands struggle with sourcing creators, negotiating rates, tracking performance, and managing campaigns, all of which are typically handled through spreadsheets. Kave Africa streamlines this by connecting brands with vetted creators and managing the entire campaign lifecycle. Creators sign up on the platform and specify their niche, and then they are rated using a scoring system that considers posting consistency, video quality, and audience authenticity, as some creators use bots to boost their follower count. A key part of this system is Kave’s integration with TikTok’s API, which allows the platform to access backend metrics, like fake followers and ad-driven engagement that are not visible on the frontend. Kave’s landing page. Image source: Kave Brands can either search for creators directly on the platform or publish a campaign with a fixed budget and brief. Interested creators will then apply to allow brands to select from the pool based on their ratings. The platform operates an escrow payment system where brands deposit the campaign funds upfront, but money is only released to the creator’s wallet after the content is delivered and approved. Kave also provides detailed campaign analytics, such as link clicks, traffic driven to brand pages, views, and follower growth. Kave monetises by taking 20% of each campaign budget as a processing and service fee. Since its launch, Kave says it has built a database of about 6,000 creators and has worked with brands such as Tolaram Group, the parent company of Indomie, Colgate, and other consumer brands. Why we’re watching: The African creator economy is expected to reach $29.84 billion by 2032 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.7%. To accelerate this growth and tap into this market value, Kave is tackling an inefficient process in creator marketing by replacing spreadsheets and manual sourcing with structured workflows and verified data. Its biggest differentiator is its use of TikTok’s backend API to rate creators based on real engagement rather than surface-level metrics, to give brands more confidence in performance. The startup is also building a community: it says it hosted 3,500 creators at its Kave Creator Fest in December 2025. Clisense wants to help African farmers stay ahead of climate shocks with predictive insights (Agritech, Rwanda/Nigeria) Clisense is an agritech startup using data science and climate analytics to help smallholder farmers anticipate and adapt to climate-related risks such as flooding and disease outbreaks. Founded by Ayomide Agbaje in December 2023, he noticed that overnight rainfall frequently led to floods that wiped out crops in the hilly
Read MoreIn 2026, smart money will find its way to Francophone Africa
Africa’s venture capital story has always been geographically narrow. The ‘Big Four’—Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, and Egypt—absorbed the majority of capital, talent and attention. In 2024, those four markets captured 67% of all African venture funding, according to global venture firm Partech. Yet concentration is no longer producing comfort. Currency volatility, regulatory unpredictability, and declining capital efficiency have forced a rethink from investors to find a new source for durable returns. In 2025, there were 66 M&A deals, representing a 69% increase year-over-year. Francophone Africa accounted for several notable exit events during the year. Pan-African logistics firm Logidoo acquired Ivorian digital freight startup Kamtar; Moroccan super app Ora Technologies acquired Cathedis, a local last-mile delivery startup; AfriCar Group (AUTO24), an automotive marketplace startup, acquired Ivorian car price platform, Koto.ci; Senegalese payment gateway PayDunya acquired by South African payments platform Peach Payments; US-based Global Shop Group acquired Ivorian e-commerce marketplace ANKA; and Saviu Ventures, an early-stage VC focused on Francophone Africa, also exited its investment in pan-African eyewear startup Lapaire. By comparison, 2024 recorded 36 M&A deals, with only three exits in Francophone Africa (as of H1). The only reported tech deal was Yassir’s acquisition of Tunisian meal delivery startup KooL. Exits in Francophone Africa last peaked in 2019, with 13 M&A deals. While 2025 was not the region’s strongest year on record, it likely marked a clear improvement over 2024 and helped restore investor optimism. In 2026, that reassessment could push capital deeper toward Francophone Africa. While the Big Four will still matter because of their proven commercial outcomes for investors, Francophone Africa could be an emerging market worth exploring. Why 2025 invented smart money The shift began when Francophone Africa’s macroeconomic growth became impossible to ignore in 2025. The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to grow by 4.8% in 2024 and remain above 4% through 2025, outperforming the continental average of roughly 3.8%, and higher than the 3.9% and 4% projected for North and West Africa in the same year. This was driven by economic advancements from Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Benin, which maintained projected growth rates above 5%. Morocco combined moderate growth with investment-grade sovereign status, a rarity on the continent. The relatively stable currency, the CFA franc, pegged to the euro, has been a key factor in startup math. Currency stability helps ensure that startups do not see their capital eroded by exchange-rate volatility. In contrast, the naira depreciated against the dollar by over 40% between 2023 and 2024. Capital flows followed fundamentals. African startups raised over $3 billion in 2025, yet recovery remained uneven. The Big Four still dominated volume, but outside those markets, Francophone countries accounted for about 55% of equity funding across the rest of the continent, a share that held despite a funding decline in Francophone markets in 2024. The composition of capital also shifted. According to the African Private Capital Association (AVCA), venture capital represented nearly 60% of private capital deal activity in Francophone Africa between 2021 and H1 2024, compared with negligible levels before 2016. Deal volume averaged 44 transactions per year between 2021 and 2023, almost double the 2012 to 2020 average. Governments and regulators are beginning to recognise the opportunity. In 2025, they took steps to lay the groundwork for tech innovation, from Senegal’s Startup Act to an interoperability initiative between the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). This collaboration between the two regional central banks is expected to ease cross-border fund flows, address longstanding trade bottlenecks, and unlock new opportunities for logistics businesses across the region. Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Morocco are three Francophone African countries to watch in 2026; frontier markets, like DR Congo, are showing more promise going into the new year. Senegal’s second act Senegal shows the new investment logic more clearly than any other market in the region. For years, its tech story began and ended with Wave. The mobile money company’s $1.7 billion valuation in 2021 proved that a Francophone market could produce a unicorn. But without repeatable success, that hype cooled until recently, and oil played a part. In 2024, production started at the Sangomar offshore oil field and exceeded expectations. Senegal produced 16.9 million barrels in its first year. In 2025, output forecasts rose to 34.5 million barrels, with most of that target reached by August. Annual oil revenues are projected to cross $1 billion. Gas production also grew. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project began exports in April 2025 and reached commercial operations two months later. Phase one capacity stands at 2.3 million tons per year, with expansion planned. A third project, Yakaar-Teranga, holds around 25 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas and is moving toward a final investment decision. This resource income has improved fiscal stability and given the government room and the revenue to act. Senegal is now trying to expand its non-oil revenue—which majorly comes from telecoms—to other technology sectors. It activated its Startup Act in November 2025, offering tax exemptions, access to public procurement, and clearer regulations for startups. Infrastructure investment followed, including the Diamniadio Science and Technology Park, backed by the government and the African Development Bank. Wave continues to play the role of a market enabler. With over 20 million customers, nearly half of Senegal’s population, Wave still collects 1% in transaction fees, making it a comparatively cheaper payments service provider compared to other financial institutions. The company also powers SMEs and startups, directly contributing to the tech and informal economy’s growth. With consumer fintech established, investment has shifted toward logistics, agri-tech and B2B commerce. Senegal’s position as a regional trade hub, anchored by the Port of Dakar and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) market access, makes supply chain digitisation commercially viable. Capital is flowing to companies that move goods, finance inventory, and formalise trade rather than those competing for marginal consumer wallets. Côte d’Ivoire’s case Côte d’Ivoire has become the financial anchor of Francophone West Africa. The
Read MoreFrom phones to fibre: How Africa’s hardware strategy quietly shifted in 2025
Africa’s relationship with technology underwent a structural shift in 2025. After decades as a net consumer of imported devices, networks and energy systems, the continent is increasingly treating hardware manufacturing as strategic infrastructure rather than an industrial afterthought. What began as scattered experiments in phone assembly and solar panels is now converging with a much larger transformation: the rise of hyperscale digital infrastructure, energy-backed data centres and continent-wide fibre systems that demand local production at scale. By the end of 2025, this shift had taken on far greater significance. Africa’s hardware push was no longer just about lowering costs or creating jobs, but about who controls the physical backbone of the digital economy. As data centres, fibre networks and energy systems become critical national assets, local manufacturing is increasingly tied to questions of resilience, economic security and technological sovereignty. The ability to build and maintain these systems at home now shapes how much value African economies retain from digital growth, and how dependent they remain on external supply chains. Smartphones, chips and the limits of leapfrogging Early attempts to localise electronics manufacturing exposed both the promise and the limits of Africa’s industrial ambitions. Rwanda’s Mara Phones project, launched in 2019, is a defining case study due to the scale of ambition and promise to succeed where similar projects have failed in countries like Nigeria due to poor funding and government buy-in. The Kigali facility locally manufactured motherboards and sub-boards, a rare achievement that symbolised industrial sovereignty. But the economics were unforgiving. Priced between $130 and $190, Mara’s devices struggled against cheaper Chinese and Korean alternatives in a market where smartphone penetration hovered around 15%. Despite creating skilled jobs and proving technical capability, the project ultimately buckled under global price competition. Kenya adopted a more pragmatic approach. In late 2023, East Africa Device Assembly Limited (EADAK), backed by Safaricom, Jamii Telecommunications and Chinese partners, opened a large-scale assembly plant in Nairobi. Instead of aiming for premium differentiation, the facility focused on volume, cost efficiency and logistics, producing affordable 4G smartphones at around the $50 price point. Within its first year, the plant produced more than one million devices, validating a strategy that prioritised scale and demand aggregation before deeper localisation of components such as batteries and circuit boards. By December 2024, the Athi River-based plant, operated with an annual capacity of up to three million units, surpassed the one-million-device production mark. This output supported Safaricom’s broader ambition to connect 20 million customers with 4G-enabled devices, contributing to a base of 23 million active 4G devices on its network by late 2025. Favourable government policies helped reduce device costs by about 30%, enabling models such as the Neon Smarta and Neon Ultra, locally assembled and sold by EADAK, to continue to retail for as little as $70 by December 2025. Even so, rising competition from established international brands like Infinix and Redmi limited the venture’s market traction, with local handset market share for Neon smartphones falling to 0.68% by mid-2025. Kenya has also pursued higher-value manufacturing at the margins. Semiconductor Technologies Ltd, operating at Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, runs one of Africa’s few commercial fabrication facilities producing nanotechnology and integrated circuits for export in partnership with U.S.-based 4Wave. While its current footprint is small, a U.S.-funded feasibility study to expand into legacy automotive and power chips reflects a broader recalibration of global supply chains. Hardware as the backbone of the green and connected economy Energy has emerged as one of the most consistent success stories for local hardware manufacturing in Africa, largely because production has been tied to clear, long-term demand rather than speculative industrial ambition. Kenya’s Solinc solar manufacturing plant in Naivasha, operational since 2011, shows how localisation can work when industrial policy, financing models, and market needs are aligned. The facility produces solar modules ranging from 20 to 250 watts, serving both rural households and a growing urban middle class in search of reliable power. Its expansion has been supported by regional exports to markets such as Uganda and Tanzania, as well as pay-as-you-go financing models popularised by firms like M-KOPA, which have lowered upfront costs and unlocked mass-market adoption. In 2025, Solinc East Africa further consolidated its role as a regional anchor for solar manufacturing. As Africa’s longest-running photovoltaic producer—a company that manufactures materials and products to convert sunlight directly into electricity—the firm produces over 140,000 solar panels annually at its Naivasha plant, with a total installed production capacity of approximately 8.4 MW. Solinc moved beyond the off-grid retail segment into larger commercial and industrial projects, supplying systems ranging from 20 kW to over 500 kW. This diversification allowed it to balance high-volume consumer demand with higher-margin industrial installations, strengthening the economic case for energy as one of the most viable pathways for sustainable local hardware production on the continent. As price gaps between locally assembled panels and imported Chinese modules continue to narrow, purchasing decisions are increasingly shaped by non-price factors. While Chinese products still dominate overall market share, buyers are placing greater weight on warranties, after-sales service, and supply continuity. At the same time, major Chinese investments in solar manufacturing hubs in countries such as Ethiopia and Egypt are giving rise to hybrid production ecosystems, where foreign capital and technology are combined with African labour and regional markets. Even so, critical upstream components—such as wafers and precision manufacturing equipment—remain concentrated in Asia, underscoring the limits of localisation in the near term. This hybrid model of global design paired with deep local integration is also becoming visible in other technology-intensive sectors. Zipline’s drone delivery operations in Rwanda and Ghana demonstrate how globally engineered hardware can be embedded into national infrastructure when aligned with public policy and service delivery goals. Since its launch in Rwanda in 2016, Zipline has reduced blood and medical supply delivery times from hours to minutes, integrating aircraft, software platforms and regulatory frameworks directly into public health systems rather than operating as a stand-alone logistics service. By 2025, Zipline had evolved from a
Read MoreWith US visa bond, the path to Silicon Valley just got steeper for African startups
From January 2026, founders, investors, executives, and freelancers from more than 20 African countries will face a new financial hurdle when trying to visit the United States. Under a revived US visa bond programme, applicants who otherwise qualify for short-term business and tourist visas (B1/B2) will be required to post a bond of $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000, refundable only if they exit the US before their authorised stay expires. The countries affected by the directive include Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Angola, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Malawi, Zambia, The Gambia, Gabon, Benin, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Burundi, and Cabo Verde, among others. Most implementation dates fall on January 21, 2026. Applicants must complete a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration bond form, submit payment through the US Treasury’s online platform, and enter the US only through three designated airports: Boston Logan, JFK, and Washington Dulles. On paper, the directive aims to curb visa overstays, but in reality, it could pose a significant headache to Africa’s tech ecosystem, which is its most globally connected industry. Founders and senior executives often travel to the US for fundraising, accelerator programmes, partnerships, and conferences. Freezing working capital For early-stage African startups, where seed rounds fall between $50,000 and $250,000, the $10,000 refundable bond is akin to locking up an equivalent of one to three months of working capital. Sending multiple team members to US trips for conferences or pitches could prove problematic for such companies. The US visa bond could favour founders backed by international capital or institutional investors who can front the bond. Those without liquidity—including many women and young entrepreneurs—may travel less. Fundraising headache The US remains one of the most significant sources of capital for Africa’s startups. In recent years, US-linked venture funds have participated in more than a third of major African venture deals. Face-to-face engagement matters in investor due diligence, especially in a risk-sensitive funding climate. The new policy could tilt the scales further toward founders who already have US-based networks, creating an access gap. Accelerator programmes—long seen as a bridge between African startups and Silicon Valley—may also feel the effects. In-person residencies require several weeks in the US. Some accelerators may cut the number of African founders invited in person. While the Trump administration frames the intervention targeted at overstays, it could hit the startup ecosystem, which gets capital through relationships and mobility.
Read MoreHow Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti are building Africa’s overlooked digital powerhouses
Global attention has remained fixed on Kenya’s M-PESA and Nigeria’s fintech unicorns because they offer clean stories of scale. Yet, a quieter story has unfolded in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti, all operating under severe structural and political strains, have developed digital systems within conflict-affected economies, each taking a distinct route shaped by local constraints. Their progress challenges long-held assumptions about where digital markets can take root and signals a change in how economic activity may spread across East Africa. Three Horn of Africa states are building digital systems under pressure and in ways that cut against Africa’s familiar tech narrative. Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti demonstrate that scale, trust, and connectivity can emerge from state control, private improvisation, or pure infrastructure build-out, with consequences for how growth and power are distributed across East Africa. Ethiopia’s state-led ambition meets market reality Ethiopia’s attempt to modernise its economy through digitisation is currently caught between the Digital Ethiopia 2025 strategy and the realities of a state-led legacy. While data suggests a nation in transition, the friction between the state incumbent and new market entrants reveals a liberalisation process stalling under its own weight. Internet penetration, though rising to 19% by early 2025, remains a modest metric for a country of this scale; the more consequential shifts are occurring in the structural layers of connectivity and digital identity. The end of Ethio Telecom’s monopoly was intended to bring more players into the market, yet the playing field remains structurally tilted. Since its 2021 entry, Safaricom Ethiopia has deployed $2.27 billion in capital, but a 2025 World Bank assessment highlights significant handicaps. For instance, Safaricom has been forced to self-build 60% of its sites due to the lack of an open-access infrastructure regime. At the same time, the state-owned incumbent leverages its scale to cross-subsidise data through voice revenue. This keeps tariffs at a maximum of 4.5 GB per $1, a price point that challenges the unit economics of private competitors. Despite these headwinds, mobile connections reached 85.4 million in early 2025, providing the technical floor for a digital economy projected to contribute $10 billion to GDP by 2028. While telecom captures headlines, the most significant shift is the rollout of Fayda, a biometric ID system serving as the authentication layer for Ethiopia’s Digital Public Infrastructure. By mid-2025, registrations surpassed 12 million, with the system already integrated across 12 federal institutions. A surge in mobile finance complements this digital backbone. Ethio Telecom’s mobile money product, telebirr, recorded 72 million customers by mid-2025. However, the ecosystem remains fragmented. The success of Ethiopia’s digital dividend now depends on regulatory clarity, specifically, cost-based interconnection and the decoupling of state infrastructure from the state operator. Without these reforms, the nation risks developing a digital economy that is large in scale but lacks competitive depth. Somalia is exploring private innovation in the state’s absence Somalia is a nation with a historically bypassed state that manages one of Africa’s most sophisticated digital economies. In the vacuum left by the collapse of central banking in 1991, private telecommunications firms have effectively filled the void, building a mobile money infrastructure that now processes approximately 650 million transactions annually. Worth an estimated $8 billion, these digital flows represent 36% of the country’s GDP. In a nation wherer 83% of adults of urban dwellers transact via mobile wallets for everything from utility bills to street food, cash is rarely used. This digital surge was a survival mechanism rather than a policy choice. Without a functioning commercial banking sector, telecom operators like Hormuud and Somaliland-based Telesom stepped in to facilitate the $2 billion in annual diaspora remittances that sustain the economy. By early 2025, this fragmented private ecosystem began its first major formalisation. The Central Bank of Somalia launched the Somalia Instant Payment System (SIPS), introducing a national QR code standard (SOMQR) to bridge the divide between isolated mobile wallets and the emerging banking sector. This technical interoperability is the government’s first credible attempt to assert regulatory oversight over a financial landscape it has long merely observed. Connectivity is following a similar path of private-sector leapfrogging. In April 2025, Somalia’s National Communications Authority granted Starlink an operational licence in one of the continent’s fastest regulatory approvals. Satellite internet has extended high-speed coverage into remote rural territories that traditional ISPs could not safely reach by bypassing terrestrial infrastructure that is often targeted or “taxed” by militant groups like al-Shabaab. While al-Shabaab, a militant group, frequently bombs telecom towers, it simultaneously exploits the same digital rails for its own financial flows and propaganda. Somalia’s digital success reflects a resilient private sector capable of operating in a regulatory void; however, the transition to a state-managed system will test whether formal institutions can keep pace with the market’s velocity. Djibouti is a small nation with strategic infrastructure Djibouti has pivoted from its traditional role as a maritime outpost to position itself as the digital switchboard for East Africa. The city-state, home to one million residents, has secured landing points for 12 major submarine cables, including the 45,000-kilometre 2Africa system, by leveraging its strategic location at the junction of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. This density of infrastructure has driven domestic internet penetration to 65%, the highest in the region, while establishing the country as a Tier 3 carrier-neutral hub through facilities such as the Djibouti Data Centre and the recently inaugurated Wingu Group technology park. The country’s economic strategy now focuses on leveraging this subsea connectivity to gain regional influence. Djibouti serves as the primary gateway for landlocked Ethiopia and is spearheading the Horizon Project to link Khartoum and Addis Ababa via a high-capacity terrestrial corridor. This digital backbone is the centrepiece of a Horn of Africa integration initiative intended to align five neighbouring economies with the African Continental Free Trade Area. Recent World Bank backing for the Digital Foundations Project underscores this shift to move the local economy beyond port fees toward a diversified services sector that currently powers 95 operational e-government services.
Read MoreNigeria’s telecoms bet on infrastructure is starting to show in internet speeds
Nigeria’s average 4G download speeds climbed to 33Mbps by the end of 2025, reflecting years of sustained investment in network infrastructure, fibre expansion and regulatory reforms, Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), said in a January 1, 2026 newsletter. The improvement puts Nigeria ahead of many African countries, where average internet speeds often fall below 20 Mbps, and signals a meaningful upgrade in the quality of experience available to millions of users, even as challenges around affordability and rural access persist. The speed gains come against the backdrop of a rapidly expanding digital market. Broadband penetration crossed the 50% threshold in 2025, reaching 50.58% by November, up sharply from 45.61% at the start of the year. Active mobile subscriptions stood at 172.71 million, with teledensity approaching 80%, while active data subscribers reached 142 million across all technologies. Infrastructure investments driving faster networks The rise in average 4G speeds has been underpinned by aggressive infrastructure deployment across the country. Operators deployed 2,800 new sites in 2025, the EVC’s newsletter noted. This expansion has strengthened backhaul capacity for mobile networks, a critical factor in improving real-world data speeds. While 5G adoption remains relatively modest at 6.38 million active users, its presence has helped decongest 4G networks and contributed to rising performance across the board. Data consumption peaked at 1.24 million terabytes, underscoring growing demand for faster and more reliable connectivity. In his January 1, 2026, newsletter, Maida framed these investments as part of a broader national transformation. “Pipelines of oil are giving way to pipelines of fibre,” he wrote, signalling a shift in how Nigeria must think about infrastructure and economic growth in the digital era. How Nigeria compares globally and regionally Globally, mobile download speeds that blend 4G and 5G traffic are naturally higher, with median speeds around 61.5Mbps in early 2025 and some reports placing the figure closer to 90Mbps in markets with widespread 5G adoption. Within this landscape, Nigeria’s improvement reflects progress rather than parity with the most advanced markets. Regionally, the contrast is even sharper. Average mobile download speeds in Sub-Saharan Africa remain between 15Mbps and 20Mbps, weighed down by heavy reliance on legacy 2G and 3G networks in rural areas and limited fibre backhaul. While countries such as Mauritius and South Africa outperform the regional average, Nigeria’s rising speeds mark it as one of the fastest-improving large markets on the continent. Quality of experience moves to the forefront Maida noted that the regulator’s priorities have evolved from enforcing technical standards to ensuring holistic satisfaction. “The goal is for consumers to be consistently satisfied. Our focus has evolved from simply demanding quality service to ensuring a holistic Quality of Experience,” he said. The shift reflects growing recognition that faster networks must translate into tangible benefits for users, from smoother video streaming and faster downloads to more reliable access for businesses and public services. Consumer trust has become central to this effort, particularly as rising data usage fuels concerns about billing transparency and perceived data depletion. “An informed consumer is a better-equipped consumer,” Maida wrote, emphasising education and clarity as essential to sustaining confidence in the telecoms sector. Regulation, pricing and market sustainability The speed gains have unfolded alongside sensitive regulatory decisions, including a 50% tariff adjustment in January 2025. The move initially led to the loss of about one million internet users, though subscriptions showed signs of recovery by March, returning to around 142 million active data users. According to the NCC, sustaining network performance requires continued capital investment, which in turn depends on a viable pricing environment. “This is an industry that requires continuous investment. The world is moving ahead, and if we do not create the right conditions, we will be left behind,” Maida warned. The Commission has signalled a renewed emphasis on market-driven pricing, aiming to balance competition with the financial health of operators. “We are reverting to the principles of empowering market forces to determine fair prices while ensuring competition to protect consumers,” he noted. Security, fibre resilience and national impact Despite the progress, vulnerabilities remain. Fibre cuts and infrastructure vandalism continue to disrupt services and inflate operational costs. Telecom operators suffered over 19,000 fibre cuts between January and August 2025, according to the NCC. The NCC has increasingly framed these incidents as more than commercial setbacks. “These interruptions slow services, reduce productivity, and in some cases, endanger lives,” Maida said, highlighting the broader societal risks of network instability. Efforts to expand fibre infrastructure toward a long-term target of nearly 95,000 kilometres demand coordination across government, operators and security agencies. The NCC views this collaboration as essential to safeguarding the gains already made.
Read MoreNigeria has the internet bandwidth. Getting it inland is the problem
Nigeria sits at the centre of West Africa’s international connectivity, with eight high-capacity submarine cables landing on its shores. Systems such as WACS, MainOne, Glo-1, Africa Coast to Europe, SAT-3/WASC, NCSCS, Google’s Equiano and Meta-backed 2Africa together provide an estimated combined capacity of more than 360 terabits per second, dramatically expanding Nigeria’s access to global bandwidth and reducing the cost of bringing data into the country. Yet a striking paradox remains: distributing that capacity within Nigeria—from coastal landing points to homes, businesses and communities inland—is still far more expensive, complex and unpredictable. This gap between abundant international capacity and costly domestic distribution has become one of the most enduring barriers to affordable broadband and inclusive digital growth. Understanding why terrestrial fibre costs more than submarine cables requires looking beyond engineering and into governance, policy, financing and market structure. It also requires confronting the uncomfortable reality that Nigeria has solved the international connectivity problem faster than it has solved the domestic one. Why submarine cable economics work Large open-access submarine cable systems such as 2Africa and Equiano are expensive projects in absolute terms, but relatively efficient when measured per kilometre. The West Africa Cable System, built at a cost of roughly $650 million (₦943 billion) over about 14,500 to 15,000 kilometres, worked out to roughly $40,000 (₦58 million) to $45,000 (₦65 million) per kilometre at the time of construction. Meta’s 2Africa cable, widely reported to cost just under $1 billion across around 45,000 kilometres, brought that average closer to $20,000 (₦29.0 million) to $25,000 (₦36.3 million) per kilometre. These figures are not accidental. Submarine cables are delivered as single, large-scale engineering projects using standardised technology and long-established construction practices. Once routes, landing points and system specifications are agreed, most of the major costs are locked in through contracts with a small group of specialised vendors. This makes submarine projects relatively predictable, even when they span multiple countries and oceans. Equally crucial is the consortium and open-access approach that underpins many modern submarine cable systems. As Meta’s Head of Public Policy for Anglophone West Africa, Sade Dada, noted, the 2Africa cable was intentionally structured to distribute cost and risk across multiple operators while granting broader access to other players. This model reduces duplication, fosters competition, and ensures that international capacity is not monopolised by a single infrastructure owner. “One of the key challenges we face is that we’ve been doing things the same way for too long,” Dada said at the Minister, Regulator & Telecom Executives Forum 2025 in Abuja, hosted by the Association of Telecommunication Operators of Nigeria (ATCON) on November 28, 2025. “Innovative models exist that can significantly lower costs, but realising their potential requires a willingness to think differently. By doing so, we can reduce costs not only for operators, but also for infrastructure providers and other participants across the ecosystem.” Dada also highlighted the critical role of Nigeria’s regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), in supporting the initiative. Rather than dismissing the unfamiliar open-access model, the NCC engaged actively—asking questions, adapting licensing frameworks, and exploring how open-access landing arrangements would function. This collaborative approach demonstrated regulatory maturity and was instrumental in advancing the 2Africa project. Why is terrestrial fibre harder and costlier? Terrestrial fibre deployment in Nigeria is fragmented, exposed and highly variable. For example, the federal government has estimated that expanding the country’s fibre backbone to around 90,000 kilometres could require roughly $1.5 billion to $2 billion in investment, depending on funding and scope, suggesting average costs that can vary widely by location and construction conditions rather than a fixed per-kilometre figure. Actual costs often exceed simple averages due to factors such as high right-of-way fees, varied state-level charges, delays in approvals, security risks, and power challenges, making inland fibre deployment more expensive and unpredictable than international submarine systems. Right-of-way charges remain a major cost driver. Although the NCC has worked to standardise and lower these fees, several states still impose charges far above recommended levels. Delays in approvals further inflate costs by extending construction timelines and increasing financing and operational expenses. “Currently, the overall cost of fibre deployment no longer aligns with the recommendations of the National Executive Council (NEC) and applies only to certain categories,” said Bayo Juba, Associate Director of Fibre Operations at IHS Nigeria. “Securing the right of way often takes a long time, which adds costs and delays construction, ultimately extending project timelines.” Beyond right-of-way, operators face multiple layers of taxation, demands for community compensation, vandalism and security risks, and the ongoing burden of powering and maintaining infrastructure in areas with unreliable electricity. These factors vary from state to state and can change mid-project, making terrestrial fibre far less predictable than submarine deployments. The result is a situation in which Nigeria can access massive volumes of international capacity at relatively low and stable costs, but struggles to distribute that capacity efficiently within its own borders. The price of fragmentation and duplication Another structural problem driving up costs is the lack of meaningful collaboration among operators. As several industry leaders noted, multiple companies often lay fibre along the same routes, duplicating infrastructure rather than sharing it. This parallel build-out inflates capital expenditure and ultimately pushes costs onto consumers. Samson Adewunmi Anjorin of LinkOrg Networks, a Nigerian-based internet service provider and systems integrator, argued that true collaboration, rather than rhetorical commitment, is essential. In a functional open-access environment, operators would buy and sell capacity along different segments of a route, rather than each attempting to own the entire path from end to end. Without this mindset shift, Nigeria will continue to overbuild in some corridors while leaving others completely unserved. “As operators, we need to collaborate in a meaningful way,” Anjorin said. “For example, if you need connectivity from Lagos to Abuja, Company A may already have fibre running to Ekiti, and you could leverage another operator’s network along the route. By working together, we can avoid unnecessary duplication and significantly reduce costs. Instead of each operator building parallel infrastructure where fibre already
Read MoreWhy Flutterwave bought Mono and what controlling Africa’s financial data layer unlocks
Since its inception in 2016, Flutterwave has built its business on helping African merchants accept cross-border payments, largely by connecting card networks and local processors. Now, Africa’s most valuable startup wants to control the financial data layer behind those transactions, and it has acquired open banking startup Mono to do it. The all-stock transaction, valued between $25 million and $40 million, represents a significant consolidation of the African financial infrastructure layer as the region’s digital economy shifts away from legacy card networks toward bank-linked payment systems. Under the deal, Mono will remain an independent unit, with chief executive officer Abdulhamid Hassan keeping control of day-to-day operations. The deal stops short of operational integration, meaning Mono will retain technical autonomy while tapping Flutterwave’s licences and footprint across more than 30 countries. Flutterwave did not immediately say whether the transaction would affect Mono’s staff headcount. The exit follows a period of consolidation in which Moni raised $17.5 million from investors, including Tiger Global and Target Catalyst. Despite its status as a leading open banking player, Mono navigated a market marked by fragmented technological standards at local banks and a regulatory environment that often lagged behind technical innovations. Still, joining Flutterwave means Mono has secured a path to scale that avoids the friction of independent regional expansion and the hurdles of maintaining custom integrations across diverse banking systems. For Flutterwave, owning the data behind the payments it processes is strategic. It can evolve beyond a payment processor into a financial institution capable of offering credit-related services, while also strengthening its core payments stack through account-to-account transfers. Mastercard, a global payment processor, similarly acquired Finicity for $825 million in 2020, in a deal that integrated Finicity’s open‑banking APIs and real‑time financial data access into its own open banking platform. After the acquisition, Mastercard now supports lending, risk scoring, identity verification, and bank payments. An infrastructure super stack The transaction marks a vertical integration of the data and settlement layers within the African market. Flutterwave is evolving from a payment gateway into a comprehensive stack provider and will absorb Mono’s API-driven platform to manage identity verification, financial data access and account-to-account (A2A) payments in a single product. Two former Flutterwave employees who spoke to TechCabal and asked not to be named view the deal as a defence against the high costs and failure rates associated with traditional card rails. While international card schemes like Visa and Mastercard dominate the global market, they often struggle with local relevance in Africa due to high intermediary fees and settlement delays that can stretch beyond 48 hours. Mono’s infrastructure facilitates direct account-to-account transfers that settle almost instantly on local rails. Card transactions typically involve multiple intermediaries, including acquirers, issuers and switches, each taking a portion of the transaction value. Flutterwave will use Mono’s open banking APIs to bypass these hurdles. Addressing trust gaps with data The move is a bet on the future of African finance, one where bank transfers and real-time data replace the high fees and failure rates of credit cards, according to Flutterwave CEO Olugbenga ‘GB’ Agboola. “Payments, data, and trust cannot exist in silos,” Agboola said in a statement. Taking this approach simplifies typical compliance-heavy processes, such as bank verification and identity checks, which have historically been bottlenecks in onboarding SMEs at scale. At the time of the deal, Mono had enabled more than 8 million bank account linkages, reaching about 12% of Nigeria’s banked population. The resulting pool of roughly 100 billion data points has become collateral in a market where traditional credit bureaus capture only a thin slice of activity. A stablecoin play The strategic roadmap for the combined entity includes open banking-enabled stablecoin use cases. Stablecoins have become key tools for African businesses seeking to hedge against local currency volatility and navigate the scarcity of American dollars. A 2025 report by Yellow Card, a pan-African crypto platform, disclosed that stablecoins made up 43% of all cryptocurrency transactions in Africa in 2024. Nigeria led with nearly $22 billion in transactions between July 2023 and June 2024. However, the liquidity of these stablecoins has been affected by cumbersome on-ramps and off-ramps. The integration of Mono’s APIs created a pathway for converting and settling digital assets directly into verified bank accounts. This is expected to streamline cross-border trade, mainly in corridors where the correspondent banking system is inefficient. The acquisition, a first in Africa in 2026, provides an interesting liquidity event and signals the sector’s maturation. Early backers of Mono, including General Catalyst and Tiger Global, saw a return of up to 20 times their investment.
Read More$670m Sango Capital on exporting African tech to global markets
In February 2025, Motorola acquired RapidDeploy, a South Africa–born emergency response platform, for an undisclosed sum after its investors helped the company expand into the United States, where its software now underpins critical 911 infrastructure. While the acquisition meant RapidDeploy’s investors got returns on their investment, the deal also proved that African private equity firms can build and scale sophisticated software within their portfolio companies and successfully export that capability beyond the continent. Sango Capital, which manages over $670 million in assets, helped export RapidDeploy to the United States. Founded in 2011 by Richard Okello and Charles Mwebeiha, Sango Capital invests in infrastructure, energy, and consumer products across Africa on behalf of global institutional clients (family offices, pensions, endowments, foundations, and sovereign wealth funds) while taking a distinctly commercial view of the market. Sango Capital typically acquires high-growth companies that grow between 20% and 50% annually before exiting from the company. The firm also invests in startups and has direct exposure to Africa’s unicorns, including Andela, MNT-Halan, and Optasia. It also invests in different fund managers through its funds-of-funds approach. In this edition of Ask an Investor, I spoke with Richard Okello, Sango Capital’s co-founder and partner, about what it takes to build “Africa-to-the-world” companies, why operational rigour matters as much as vision, and how private equity’s discipline combined with venture-style speed could shape the next wave of scalable African technology businesses This interview has been edited for length and clarity. Rapid Deploy stood out to me because it felt unusual for a private equity fund to be so directly involved in helping a tech company scale globally. Is this something we should expect more of in Africa—a more hands-on role for private equity? First, it helps to clarify that our fund is not only private equity. We operate across private equity, venture capital, and private credit. We invest both through funds—using a multi-manager approach—and directly into companies, sometimes alongside funds and sometimes independently. It’s a full 360-degree investment model. Rapid Deploy fits within our venture strategy. Venture in Africa is still relatively young, so you don’t yet have managers with decades of pattern recognition that allow you to back them purely on reputation. There’s also still an evolving dynamic around access to later-stage capital. Our approach is to back VC funds, stay deeply engaged with them and their portfolio companies, and selectively participate in follow-on rounds where we see both upside and the ability to add value. Rapid Deploy fell into that category. It started in South Africa, and we backed a manager who invested early. The company scaled and exited very quickly, so there wasn’t time for us to participate in later rounds. More broadly, yes. You should expect private equity to move down market. We’re already seeing PE funds invest in growth-stage tech companies in markets like Egypt and Nigeria. Once a company reaches a certain scale—often Series B or C, sometimes even Series A if it turns profitable early—the skills required start to resemble private equity more than venture. Before that, it’s mostly VC-driven. Beyond its fast growth, what made Rapid Deploy special enough for Sango Capital to be that involved? Rapid Deploy wasn’t an isolated case. I’d group it with a few other companies we backed that followed an “Africa-to-the-world” trajectory and became global businesses. In these cases, we backed fund managers who were consistently identifying companies built in Africa but capable of competing in developed markets. These companies were solving large, global problems, not just local ones. The fund teams deserve most of the credit for identifying them. If the runway had been longer, we likely would have invested directly. But Rapid Deploy and the others scaled, reached profitability quickly, didn’t need additional capital, and exited soon after. Many of Africa’s biggest exits have followed the “build in Africa, sell globally” playbook. What made Sango Capital focus on that model? We’re a commercially orientated firm. All our investors (family offices, pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds) are non-DFI and return-driven. Impact matters, but competitive returns come first. So, when we look at tech, the question is simple: where do we see scalable, defensible value? At the early stage, a few things consistently matter. First is the founder. Mission-driven founders who deeply understand the problem they’re solving and have lived it tend to build more resilient companies. Take Rapid Deploy: one of the founders lost his brother in a swimming accident. That personal experience shaped the company’s focus on emergency response. We see similar mission alignment in companies like Andela or MNT-Halan. Second, strong founders know what they’re not good at. Many founders know their strengths, but fewer are self-aware enough to surround themselves with people who complement their weaknesses. A lack of that self-awareness is where many startups fail. Finally, the problem itself must be large and economically viable at real price points. If those elements come together, the company has a strong chance of success. Beyond team quality, what conditions need to exist for more African startups to scale globally? With the exception of deep-tech companies, most African startups aren’t primarily taking technology risk. They’re taking execution and growth risk, which is similar to private equity. Scaling from national to regional to global requires either significant capital for acquisitions or exceptional organic execution. Rapid Deploy took a different route: it proved its model in a complex market, validated its global relevance, then partnered with established players who already had credibility in target markets. What Africa needs isn’t just unicorns; we need hundreds of companies that scale, attract interest, get acquired at meaningful valuations, and continue growing rather than disappearing post-acquisition. That requires founders who can execute growth, partners who can finance the growth curve until profitability, and leadership teams that collectively cover capital raising, operations, and vision. The best teams bring those skills together early. How does Sango Capital judge when a company is actually ready to expand internationally? Companies don’t need everything, but they need enough of the right things.
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