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In the first half of 2026, we published 22 editions of Ask an Investor. The investors we spoke to could not have been more different. A $670 million private equity manager taking African companies to global markets. A former partner at a venture capital firm managing over $200 million. A bank in Luanda that tracked one startup for three years before investing. A Nairobi firm that spent a decade in equity then left it. The only thing they have in common is appearing in this column. Despite their different approaches to investing in African startups, the running theme has centred on a single question: can invested money come back? Almost every conversation, whatever the starting point, ended up there. Here is what the past six months have taught us and what founders should take from it. Lesson 1: The exit problem is now the centre of discussion In 2026, exits became the only thing investors wanted to discuss. Ido Sum, who spent 14 years as a partner at TLcom, an Africa-focused venture firm managing over $250 million, told us that African venture capital is not broken as many think because of the slow pace of exits; it is just early. In our conversation, he outlined his thoughts on how Africa currently sits where the US was in the 1970s and Israel in the 1980s. Those ecosystems matured through stepping-stone exits first: deals in the tens of millions, then the low hundreds, with systematic in-continent mergers and acquisitions building trust before anyone realised a billion-dollar outcome. Despite his enthusiasm, he still warns founders that they have a number problem. Every time founders raise at a higher valuation, they shrink the pool of people who can buy the startup. So the question becomes: who are they actually building value for? Launch Africa gave the clearest example of an answer. The Mauritius-domiciled fund returned $2.5 million to its investors, roughly 7% of paid-in capital on its $36 million first fund, after completing 11 exits. Eight of those were secondaries to other VCs and growth-stage investors; three were trade sales or management buyouts. No position came in below 1x, and the best returned 5x. Managing partners Zachariah George and Janade du Plessis made two points worth holding onto. First, they chose to start returning capital in year five rather than waiting for the fund to wind down at year ten, because early liquidity is what convinces limited partners (LPs) to back the next fund. Second, they built a dedicated head-of-exits role, which most African firms do not have, because in this market, an exit has to be worked for, not waited for. Lesson 2: Local capital now comes first, not second The single biggest structural change of the half-year is who is writing the cheques. African investors now account for nearly 40% of funding on the continent, up from 25%, as global money pulled back from roughly $5 billion in 2022 to about $2.3 billion, according to Briter, a research firm. Fadilah Tchoumba, the chief executive of the African Business Angel Network (ABAN), put the principle plainly: Africa must fund Africa. She reminds us that the angels who backed Flutterwave and Paystack before anyone else were Africans on the ground, and without that first layer of capital, foreign investors have nothing to follow. There is no example anywhere in the world of foreign money arriving first while local money waits. In May, the Africa Finance Corporation gave us the most surprising version of this local capital. The $19 billion development finance institution, known for funding bridges, ports, mines, and subsea cables, made its first commitment to African venture capital: $40 million anchoring Future Africa and LightRock as the first deployments from a $100 million programme. Begna Gebreyes, who runs the technology desk, said the board initially resisted, telling him they sat on the board of an infrastructure developer, not a VC firm. The strategy now is to anchor funds as the first and largest LP, then crowd in another $300 to $500 million in institutional capital from foreign foundations, endowments, and pension funds. Lesson 3: Debt is having its moment, because equity’s limits finally showed The clearest shift in conviction of the half-year was toward credit. AHL Venture Partners spent more than a decade doing a bit of everything: early-stage equity, growth equity, fund commitments, and mezzanine. Around 2020, the family behind the firm gave CEO Rosanne Whalley a blank canvas and one question: what can make money and have a durable impact? The answer was private credit. Debt recycles faster than equity in African markets, the returns are more predictable, and the liquidity profile lets you fund more businesses over time. Whalley’s nuance matters for founders: she lends against cash flows, the team quality, and the ability to keep raising, not against collateral, which she assumes will recover nothing if a company fails. She also deliberately prices currency risk, favouring USD-revenue businesses or structured hedges, and walks away from sole founders, fragmented cap tables, and too much talk of disruption. Ido Sum made the structural case from the founder’s side. Over-dilution happens because everything is funded with equity. A company raising $5 million, where $3 million is really working capital, could split the round, price better, and dilute less if the market allowed it. BFA Asset Management’s Rui Oliveira described his Kimbo Fund as closer to mezzanine, thinking like a fixed-income investor who asks whether a company could one day support a bond. And by February, with only 26 startups raising $174 million in January, the column noted that African funding was starting to look more like credit underwriting than long-term experimentation. Lesson 4: DFI money is the foundation Development finance institutions remain the backbone of African venture, and the half-year showed how uncomfortable that has become. Ido Sum estimated DFIs make up 70 to 75% of the capital in the ecosystem and was blunt that none of it would exist without them. But that dominance creates friction, because DFI mandates do
Read MoreFor nearly two decades, 3G was the network that moved Nigeria from a voice-first telecom market into a mobile internet economy. The journey began in 2006 when telecom operator Starcomms launched Nigeria’s first 3G service using Evolution-Data Optimised (EV-DO) technology. Initially designed for laptop data cards and USB modems, the service offered an early glimpse of a future where internet access would no longer be confined to cybercafés and office connections. Built on 3G technology—the third generation of mobile networks that enabled faster internet access, calls, and data services than 2G—it marked the beginning of Nigeria’s mobile broadband era. While Starcomms would eventually fade from the market and shut down in August 2012 amid fierce competition from GSM operators, its early investment helped pave the way for the country’s internet revolution. The arrival of mass-market 3G networks a year later accelerated that transformation. It powered the BlackBerry era, drove smartphone adoption, and provided the digital rails on which many of Nigeria’s earliest Internet businesses were built. For 32 million Nigerians actively connected to GSM by the end of 2006, 3G was their first real experience of the Internet. Now, the technology that helped launch Nigeria’s digital revolution is approaching the end of its life. MTN Group, the continent’s largest operator, plans to shut down some of its 3G networks before 2030 as telcos across Africa move customers to newer technologies such as 4G and 5G. While no formal timeline has been announced for Nigeria, the direction of travel is clear: 3G’s role in the telecom industry is rapidly shrinking. “The focus today for us is really on 3G shutdown,” said Selorm Adadevoh, MTN Group’s chief commercial, strategy and transformation officer, during the company’s Capital Markets Day on June 11, 2026, which TechCabal monitored online. “We should have quite a robust plan between now and 2030 to shut down some of our 3G networks,” he said. “From a technology and commercial basis, we actually do have readiness in some of our markets.” For telecom operators, the goal is to repurpose the 3G network assets it occupies. “With fewer users on 3G, telcos are committing resources to a network that no longer delivers adequate returns,” Osita Odafi, a telecom industry expert, told TechCabal in an interview. “By decommissioning 3G cells, operators can free up spectrum and tower capacity to deploy more 4G and 5G services, where demand and revenue growth are increasingly concentrated.” The technology that changed everything In March 2007, the regulator issued four licences in the 2GHz band to MTN Nigeria, Celtel Nigeria (now Airtel), Globacom, and Alheri Engineering, which later became part of Etisalat, and eventually 9mobile, and is now T2 Mobile. Each operator paid $150 million for spectrum rights, generating $600 million for government coffers. The licences triggered a nationwide race to build the infrastructure needed for a new era of connectivity. By December 18, 2007, operators had begun rolling out commercial 3.5G (HSDPA) services, investing heavily in towers, transmission networks, and fibre backhaul. Operators upgraded towers, expanded transmission networks, and invested heavily in fibre infrastructure to support growing demand for data services. The timing could not have been better. The arrival of 3G coincided with the global smartphone boom. BlackBerry devices became a cultural phenomenon among Nigerian professionals and students. BBM transformed communication habits. Android smartphones followed, opening internet access to millions more users. By 2014 and 2015, 3G accounted for an estimated 45% to 50% of active mobile connections in Nigeria, making it the dominant technology for Internet access, according to GSMA Intelligence Data. The network became the digital infrastructure behind Nigeria’s emerging tech ecosystem. Online media platforms, e-commerce startups, fintech companies, and digital communities all grew atop 3G connectivity. Before 3G, Internet access was largely confined to cybercafés. After 3G, it lived in people’s pockets. Why 3G is disappearing Despite its historic role, 3G now sits in an uncomfortable position within Nigeria’s telecom ecosystem. It is slower and less efficient than 4G and 5G, yet increasingly difficult to justify commercially. Unlike 2G, which still supports a range of legacy services and remains widely used, 3G offers few advantages to either operators or consumers. “The way we think about our network infrastructure today, 2G is still a technology that we see as quite relevant going into the future,” MTN’s Adadevoh said. “3G, on the other hand, has an economic equation that is not very promising for us.” According to NCC data, 3G penetration fell to just 5.32% in April 2026, making it the second least-used mobile technology in the country. By comparison, 4G accounted for 54.41% of connections, while 2G still held a surprisingly large 35.93% share. Operators have also spent the last few years aggressively expanding their 4G networks. MTN’s 4G population coverage has surpassed 84.6%, while Airtel Nigeria serves more than 31 million active data subscribers. Even 5G, which only launched commercially on August 24, 2022, is rapidly closing the gap. NCC data shows 5G penetration reached 4.34% in April 2026, underscoring how quickly users are migrating away from 3G and toward newer, more efficient networks. Yet some industry experts argue that the decline in usage does not necessarily mean 3G is ready for retirement. “Do I think we have enough capacity on 4G to make the shutdown call? No, I don’t think so,” said Olajide Mafolabomi, executive director at Cloud Interactive Media Group, a Nigerian technology and digital infrastructure company, and non-executive director at Telserve Networks, a Lagos-based Internet service provider. While 4G penetration has crossed 50%, Mafolabomi argues that operators need to migrate far more users before they can comfortably switch off 3G. “Before you can say you have enough of a critical mass on 4G, you need to get to maybe 85% to 90% of connections,” he said.
Read MoreTechBBQ, a Danish non-profit startup and innovation conference organiser, has secured DKK4 million ($620,000) from the Novo Nordisk Foundation to build a permanent desk linking Nordic university startups, investors, and corporations with tech talent in Africa and India. The three-year grant will fund the Nordic-Africa Innovation Summit and Nordic-India Innovation Summit, which TechBBQ plans to include in its annual conference. The initiative plans to create a platform for investment, commercial partnerships, and tech collaboration between the regions. The funding comes as Europe seeks closer economic and tech ties with both Africa and India amid growing concerns over competitiveness, access to talent, and the need to diversify strategic partnerships beyond traditional markets. The programme will give African startups a route into Nordic capital, research institutions, and corporate networks. The Nordic startup ecosystem attracted $7.7 billion in venture capital funding in 2025 and is on track to exceed $9 billion in 2026, according to Dealroom. The region is also home to more than 100 unicorns and accounts for about 12% of all European venture capital despite representing a small share of the continent’s population. “This significant backing will help us connect the Nordic ecosystem with India and Africa in a more structured and sustainable way,” TechBBQ’s chief executive Avnit Singh told TechCabal. “There is immense untapped potential in building stronger links between these ecosystems.” The announcement follows TechBBQ’s participation in Bharat Innovates 2026, an initiative launched by Indian President Narendra Modi and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in Nice, France, to strengthen global innovation and entrepreneurship networks. Deeptech focus TechBBQ said the grant would allow it to transition from pilot projects to a permanent platform focused on three areas prioritised by the Novo Nordisk Foundation, including life sciences, deeptech and artificial intelligence (AI), and climate and agricultural technology. The project will run from August 2026 through December 2028 and will operate alongside TechBBQ’s flagship conference at Copenhagen’s Bella Center. “The potential for joint development, investment and market access between the Nordics and the global markets in India and Africa has never been stronger,” TechBBQ chief strategy officer Thomas Ebdrup told TechCabal. The initiative also carries an equitable-access requirement from the Novo Nordisk Foundation, meaning knowledge generated through the programme must be shared openly where possible and resulting innovations should be made available at affordable prices in low- and middle-income countries.
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